Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.126152 0.148401 0.174345 0.207063 0.247547 0.296420 3.605311e-01
2025-07-20 0.101106 0.129192 0.165488 0.216689 0.288465 0.387704 5.392936e-01
2025-07-27 0.084022 0.115284 0.159495 0.228561 0.337549 0.509933 8.187635e-01
2025-08-03 0.069910 0.102117 0.151489 0.236264 0.386166 0.657599 1.233752e+00
2025-08-10 0.057039 0.087873 0.138556 0.233227 0.419189 0.802857 1.771477e+00
2025-08-17 0.046182 0.074437 0.123751 0.222988 0.437578 0.938887 2.446763e+00
2025-08-24 0.039579 0.066737 0.117098 0.226582 0.488991 1.193350 3.803708e+00
2025-08-31 0.034261 0.060192 0.111049 0.230003 0.545328 1.521130 6.072435e+00
2025-09-07 0.030061 0.054869 0.106155 0.234879 0.612103 1.966260 1.015868e+01
2025-09-14 0.026593 0.050274 0.101688 0.239702 0.686079 2.553834 1.771506e+01
2025-09-21 0.023132 0.045005 0.094453 0.234920 0.729851 3.110598 2.904626e+01
2025-09-28 0.018811 0.037121 0.079357 0.202824 0.657525 3.013931 3.342190e+01
2025-10-05 0.016780 0.034079 0.075663 0.204653 0.726357 3.911817 6.573324e+01
2025-10-12 0.015367 0.032178 0.074418 0.214244 0.843044 5.516445 1.656195e+02
2025-10-19 0.014192 0.030617 0.073719 0.226044 0.990994 8.065105 5.315479e+02
2025-10-26 0.013015 0.028825 0.071954 0.233721 1.135108 11.528911 2.096141e+03
2025-11-02 0.011699 0.026439 0.067879 0.230787 1.218713 15.015959 8.783247e+03
2025-11-09 0.010395 0.023862 0.062618 0.220728 1.247413 18.133850 4.143129e+04
2025-11-16 0.009577 0.022439 0.060617 0.224320 1.392344 25.808596 1.826143e+06
2025-11-23 0.008851 0.021143 0.058716 0.227735 1.551942 37.334043 NaN
2025-11-30 0.008234 0.020043 0.057201 0.232583 1.746029 56.273029 NaN
2025-12-07 0.007681 0.019036 0.055764 0.237375 1.963366 87.085468 NaN
2025-12-14 0.007051 0.017701 0.052846 0.232670 2.070626 119.289729 NaN